Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Today, I'm going to be introducing a new column idea called Hate It Or Love It. It's similar to What's For Dinner? except with this column, I'll be covering things in sports that I like or agree with in addition in addition to things I have a beef with. But if you were looking for some beef then today's your lucky day, because today, I am all about hating Andrew Luck's decision to stay at Stanford for his senior year in order to graduate.
There is something noble about an athlete getting their degree. Nowadays, it is extremely rare that a player, especially one of Luck's caliber, finishes up college. As the amount of money that pros are paid has risen dramatically, more players have decided that staying all four years is not necessary. A lot of the time players that leave early are wrong in doing so; many are not skilled or talented enough to play in the pros. With Luck that is not at all the case.
After a phenomenal junior season, in which he threw for 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 3,338 yards under the guidance of coach Jim Harbaugh (a former quarterback) and finished second in the Heisman voting, Luck looked like he was ready to take the next step into the pros. He wasn't just projected as a second or third rounder either. With the first pick in this year's NFL Draft being owned by the Carolina Panthers, and the team's quarterback situation looking rocky with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore, Mr. Luck looked like the probable first pick in this year's draft.
Do you know how much the first pick of the NFL Draft gets paid? When QB Sam Bradford got drafted by the Rams last year, he signed a six-year, $78 million deal, $50 million of which was guaranteed. The year before, another quarterback Matthew Stafford was taken in the top spot by the Lions; he signed a deal for the same length and amount as Bradford would a year later, but only got $41.7 million guaranteed. You can bet Luck would not be taking any less money than those guys if he was drafted first overall.
Now, after deciding to stay in school, there is no way for Luck's draft stock to go up; it can only either stay the same or go down, and we know how that usually ends up. The first quarterback of recent memory that passed up on being drafted in the top spot in order to enjoy his senior season was USC's Matt Leinart; what would have been his six-year, $49.5 million, with $24 million guaranteed deal went to Alex Smith. Even though Leinart's stats did not necessarily go down his senior year, his draft stock did, and he was taken with the 10th pick. Leinart was the last draftee to sign a deal that year, one worth $51 million over six years; although the deal was worth more than Smith's, only $14 million was guaranteed, and Leinart could have probably gotten a better deal than the much less popular Smith did had he left after his senior year and been picked first. Since then, Leinart has had a rocky career, mostly serving as a back-up quarterback.
In case the Leinart scenario was too long ago for Luck to remember, he had the evidence that he should declare for the draft right in front of him this year. Fellow Pac-10 quarterback Jake Locker out of Washington, was supposed to be the No. 1 pick in last year's draft. Instead of possibly getting Bradford's deal or a deal similar to Bradford's, Locker decided to stay for his senior year at Washington. After going down in almost every category this year and missing one game, Locker is now projected as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Instead of $78 million, Locker will probably sign for around $7 million, and all because he wanted to stay his senior year and graduate.
Now it's Luck's turn to make the mistake. Who knows? Maybe he will have an outstanding senior season and once again be likely to be taken with the top pick. But there are just too many risks involved for that to be likely. No player has recently been able to do it, coach Jim Harbaugh is leaving to coach the 49ers next season, and now following a great season, Luck will have to perform under much more scrutiny than last year. Even for the Cardinal team, whose only loss came at the hands of Oregon this season, it will be tough to have another great year next year, no matter who their coach is.
There is no guarantee that the top pick and multi-million dollar deal will be there next year for Luck, even if he does have another outstanding season. There was a guarantee however, that had he left, there would have always been another opportunity to finish his college career and get a degree. Maybe staying in college is the noble thing to do, but had he left for the draft, Luck would be essentially guaranteed enough money to become actual nobility.
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