The Yankees' 2011 season starts tomorrow against the Detroit Tigers. The Yanks were a wildcard team last year, despite having the third best record in baseball. After sweeping the Twins in the ALDS, they lost in 6 games in the ALCS to the Rangers, even though they were at one point leading the series 2-0. As always they'll be one of the favorites to win the World Series, only behind the Red Sox and the Phillies, but the question still seems to be the same: when are the aging players finally going to have to hand over the team to the crop of rising youngsters?
The first problem the Yankees have is no secret: pitching. After Andy Pettitte decided to retire at the age of 38 this off-season, the Yanks were only left with three proven pitchers in C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, only one of which (Sabathia), has been consistently good. Sure, some days Burnett can come out and look like a Cy Young candidate, but he has almost as many outings where he looks like he should be playing Single-A ball. Hughes started off looking like a totally new pitcher in April and May last season, but fell off the rest of the way, with a 7-6 record and 4.90 ERA following the All Star Break. It also doesn't help that C.C. looks to be leaving his prime at 31, while Burnett seems way past his at 34.
The likely fourth starter in the rotation will be 24 year old Ivan Nova. Last year, Nova pitched 42 innings for the Yanks and finished with a 4.50 ERA, pitching extremely well down the stretch, and wonderfully during his time in the minor leagues. But there's a difference between being a rookie phenom and being the fourth starter straight out of spring training, especially if you're on the Yankees; we saw it not work out with Joba Chamberlain, and even with Ian Kennedy a few years back.
Then there's Freddy Garcia. After Sergio Mitre was traded to the Brewers, the fifth spot became the 34 year old's to take. Relative to other fifth starters in Major League Baseball, Garcia is not necessarily chopped liver, but he's no standout either; he's had some solid seasons with both the Mariners and the White Sox, but has been injury prone the past three years, and if he can't handle the job this year, it may have to be handed over to Bartolo Colon. Of course, the success of the Yankees depends more on the success of Ivan Nova than it does Freddy Garcia; you know at his best Garcia will be mediocre, while Nova could be spectacular (at least for a young guy) or totally fall apart as too many new pitchers on the Yankees have.
The pitching dilemma is not the only problem that the Yankees have however; there seems to be a huge age gap when it comes to Yankee hitters. The familiar names - Jeter, A-Rod, Jorge - aren't just old, they're really old. Jeter turns 37 in June, Rodriguez turns 36 in July, and Jorge and Jorge turns 40 in August. The only everyday guys that will be younger than 30 by season's end will be Brett Gardner, Robbie Cano, and Russell Martin. Even though the Yankee line-up is still one of the most formidable in baseball, after Jeter and A-Rod retire, this team is going to have an identity crisis on its hands.
Cano will most likely be the successor to Jeter as team leader, but the Yanks will still have to rebuild and try to find a new set of true Yankees like they had during the 90s. Jesus Montero and Ivan Nova are promising, but the Yanks need to finally decide whether it's time to build up their farm system again like they did before the dynasty or just continue to try to live off of big free agent signings of proven, older guys (which they hopefully will still be able to get). The Yanks haven't really needed new talent for 15 years, when Jeter's group of guys came in. Now however, highlighted by Pettitte's departure this off-season, that class is preparing to retire. So maybe this year and the next will be promising for the Yankees, but there are some good young teams ready to threaten their dominance and if they don't figure out how to handle them, they may be on the outside looking in when October rolls around.
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