Is Baseball Back?

From now on, all of my stories will feature story highlights, outlining the arguments and points I will be making in the story. Enjoy the new feature:

• NFL Lockout may increase popularity of MLB
• More fantasy baseball players may help baseball's popularity
• Younger players in small markets are key to growth of baseball
  

For the past decade, while football has rapidly gained popularity, baseball has sunk into obscurity. America's pastime has become a thing of the past, too slow-paced and long-winded for a modern audience that lives in a fast-paced world and has a seemingly short attention span.

But an impending NFL lockout might just be the thing that delivers Major League Baseball from dark times. This past year, for the first time ever, an NFL game garnered more viewers than a World Series game; The Sunday Night Football match-up between the Steelers and Saints drew 18.1 million viewers compared to the 15.5 million people that tuned in to Game 4 of the World Series. Even though the next night, the World Series had a 10.6 rating, compared to Monday Night Football's 8.6 rating, a game which featured the Colts and the Texans, the World Series game that night was the clinching game for the Giants, making it reasonably more popular.

If there is no football to watch in early September, sports fans will have to rationally turn to the next best thing, the MLB playoffs. If the MLB is lucky enough to have big market teams make it deep into those playoffs, you can bet that more and more people will be reaching into the depths of their closets, brushing the cobwebs off of their baseball jerseys and tuning into baseball games.

Another reason that the MLB may benefit from an NFL lockout is because of fantasy sports. Fantasy football nerds - the smart ones at least - may be turning to fantasy baseball this year, in fear that a lockout may shorten or even completely cancel their fantasy football season. You gotta get your fantasy fill somehow right? Currently an estimated 18 million Americans play fantasy football, as compared to 7 million Americans playing fantasy baseball. That means at least an additional 11 million Americans could be turning to fantasy baseball to get their fill. With fantasy baseball being more of a commitment with games being played every day, it is possible that millions of people that usually would only be football fans will start following baseball extremely closely.

Another big reason that baseball is on the rise is that currently, Major League Baseball is undergoing a transition of popularity from its old stars like Jeter and A-Rod over to younger guys like Hanley Ramirez, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, Carlos Gonzalez, Robinson Cano and Tim Lincecum. These youngsters are presumably steroid-free, and best of all many of them play in small markets, big stars in little cities. Without the NFL, many sports fans in small markets will only have their baseball teams to look forward to; the only towns that have NFL teams but no MLB teams are Buffalo, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Nashville, Charlotte and New Orleans and some of those cities will have teams in-state or close-by to adopt in September.

Small market teams like the Twins, Reds and Rockies are looking poised to make the playoffs this year, and may just create the most excitement out of any team with the core of young stars that each team has. And if there is one thing the MLB needs right now its excitement, and a group of young stars to reach its toughest demographic: kids. Just look at the NBA; when young guys like LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, Dwight Howard, etc. took over the league from guys like Shaquille O'Neal, Allen Iverson and Karl Malone, the league was revitalized, and the NBA got as much attention as it did during the Jordan days.

As the shadow that steroids have casted over the sport for the past decade dissipates, the NFL struggles to get a new collective bargaining agreement done, and rising young stars continue to join MLB's ranks in small markets, Major League Baseball is looking poised to make a comeback. Baseball may not return to prominence as America's favorite sport, but it will certainly regain some of the viewership that it lost the past few decades while the NFL took over the sports world.

New York Basketball Is Back

Last night, New York basketball was born again, or at least so we think.

Around 11 pm last night, news broke that the Knicks had acquired Carmelo Anthony in a blockbuster trade. The Knicks gave up Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Timofey Mozgov, a 2014 first round draft pick and $3 million for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and former Knick Renaldo Balkman.

Some Knick fans are lamenting the loss of Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, complaining that the Knicks gave up to much for one guy. They are upset about all the "fake" Knick fans coming out and supporting the trade and the team. Well you know what I say? Let 'em, let the people who have not been to or watched a game in years, pull their Knick jerseys out of the back of their closets and make a mad rush on Madison Square Garden for games. The Garden needs to be back to being the arena it was in the 90s, full of life and most importantly, hosting a good basketball team.

One of the most important thing to realize when looking at this trade is that essentially, the Knicks are giving up Gallinari, Felton, Mozgov and a first round pick for Carmelo, Billups and the rest of the gang. You have to discount Chandler because he becomes a restricted free agent this off-season, and had the Knicks not included him in the trade and had still gotten Melo, they would not have been able to re-sign Chandler anyway. Also, Felton was not going to be a long-term Knick; whether or not the Knicks traded for Melo, they surely would have been gunning for Chris Paul or another big time point guard in the off-season or future. Then there is Timofey Mozgov who despite a 23 point, 14 rebound game a couple of weeks ago, does not seem to have much potential. The only real big loss here is Danilo, who was a great, developing young player, despite being doubted coming into the league by many (including me).

Let's not forget that the Knicks are not only getting Carmelo; Chauncey Billups isn't chopped liver. Granted he's 34 years old but he has had two of his best years the past two seasons with Denver. For the past eight full seasons that he has had (not counting 2008-09 when he only played in two games) he has averaged above 16 points per game, and so far, this season has been his best ever scoring-wise. Felton is younger and is also having a great year but the Knicks needed veteran leadership, which is what Billups can provide.

New York City is not a football town, and it's not even a baseball town; at its core, New York is a basketball town, and it finally deserves to have some star power again. It sounds and probably is ethnocentric coming from a New Yorker, but New York is not supposed to have some middle-of-the-road team with boring, middle-of-the-road players playing in the most famous arena and the most famous city in the world. Even if the Knicks did have to dump what seems like their whole roster to get Melo, they needed another big name, and now they have set themselves up to acquire another big name this off-season; some rumors have included Chris Paul and Dwight Howard coming to Broadway. Of course it could be tough to pay another star, with the tumultuous labor situation in the NBA, and a hard salary cap looking likely, but at least the Knicks are finally in a good position to get some talent to surround a solid core.

The Knicks are not the only New York team who is back in action after a decade-long hiatus. The St. John's Red Storm found its way into the Top 25 this week for the first time in 11 years. Under the leadership of Steve Lavin, the Johnnies have made college basketball relevant again in NYC. The Red Storm, at 17-9 overall and 9-5 in the conference, should have as strong of a resume as anyone going into the conference tournaments, especially with wins over then-No. 13 Georgetown, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 3 Duke, No. 10 UConn and most recently, No. 4 Pittsburgh.

The Red Storm have not made the NCAA Tournament since 2002, and being a team with nine seniors, this may be the year they make some noise in the tourney. Of course, if they do not do it this year, like the Knicks, they are set up to keep winning for a long time. So far this year, Steve Lavin, has pulled together the second best recruiting class in the nation according to ESPN.com, with six players from ESPNU's Top 100 recruits.

It will be tough to tell what the future exactly holds for the Knicks and the Red Storm, two teams that know all to well what it is like to have their dreams and high hopes shattered. Let's face it, the Knicks are still terrible defensively and may not be able to get another big name this off-season, while the Red Storm are losing nine proven seniors this year, and welcoming six highly-ranked but still unproven freshmen. Still, with Carmelo and A'mare it would be tough for the Knicks to falter and not be a top team within a few years and with the Red Storm, it seems as if they are back on their way to becoming the Beast of the Big East that they haven't been in ten, arguably twenty-five years.

The cynics and pessimists have every right to question how good New York basketball will really be in the future after the suffering of the last decade, but with the talent assembled recently by both teams and the position of New York as the Mecca of Basketball, I think it is safe to say that Madison Square Garden is back to being alive and very, very well.

LeBron James: Even Better Than We Thought

It's been a long time since the debate of Kobe vs. LeBron has been raised, being that Kobe just won his fifth title and LeBron has become everyone's least favorite person behind Tiger Woods and President Hosni Mubarak for going to the Miami Heat. Well, new evidence has come to light to show us once again that yes, LeBron is better than Kobe.

No, the new evidence is not the Lakers' recent struggles nor LeBron's unbelievable season thus far (the man is averaging 26.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 7.3 APG) nor the fact that he is the only non point guard in the top 25 in APG this year (he ranks 13th), even though he's a forward. OK, maybe it is a little bit about those things, but the best evidence that shows how good LeBron really is, is the fact that the Cavaliers have lost 25 straight games, more than 30% of their NBA season and the longest losing streak in NBA history.

Woah, woah, woah, hold the phone. Let's pause for questions. Do I mean the same Cavaliers that went 61-21 last year and 66-16 the year before that (both of which were the best records in basketball their respective seasons)? Those Cavs? Yes, that is exactly the team I am talking about.

What is the difference from last year then? Well, there is no more Zydrunas Ilgauskas, whose softness down low must be truly missed. Then there's Shaquille O'Neal, whose immobility and old age must be heartbreaking for the Cavaliers not to have this season (I'm sorry, I still love you Shaq). Maybe it's Mike Brown? You mean the guy the Cavs paid to sit on the bench and watch LeBron? Even if these guys did have some positive impact, which they did, it is obvious that 99.9999...% of the problem is the absence of LeBron.

It can be argued that the Cavs are extremely bad this year because LeBron did not give them enough time to go out and get free agents. The first response to this is that LeBron made his announcement only a week into free agency, and the second response is that even if the big stars had still been around, they probably would not find the idea of going to a Cleveland-less LeBron very enticing. Most of the stars got max contracts from either their own team or other teams in big cities, so why would any big star have gone to Cleveland?

So how can one player have that big of an impact? Because great players like LeBron - and dare I say MJ in the same sentence as any other player - are not only themselves great, but they make everyone else around them great, and therefore make the team as a whole great. That is exactly what LeBron did in Cleveland, but he never won any titles; well it is now clear that the reason for that was, LeBron was surrounded by the worst supporting cast known to man while he was on the Cavs. Yet, unlike Kobe Bryant ever did on his own, LeBron was able to constantly win with such a bad team in the regular season.

So let's get to Kobe. As we all know, Mr. Bryant has a more than impressive resume; 5 NBA titles, 13 time All-Star and one MVP award all make him one of the best players of all-time. But, the first bone to pick with those stats, is that all of those titles were won with an All-Star supporting cast. When Kobe won the first three of his titles, he was a sidekick to Shaq (who won all three Finals MVP awards in the three-peat and one MVP in the first of those years). Then, tensions between Shaq and Kobe became unbearable, and when it was clear one of them had to go, the Lakers smartly gave the boot to Shaq, who was exiting his prime, and gave the team to Kobe, who was entering his.

So how'd Kobe do as the ringleader? The first year without Shaq, the Lakers did not even reach the playoffs, going 34-48. The next two years the team barely managed to make it over .500, losing in the first round of the playoffs in both years.

So under Kobe, in what was the prime of his career both age and stat-wise, the Lakers were a mediocre team. The Western Conference during that time was extremely good, but the talent in the Eastern Conference over the past few years that LeBron had to face has been almost just as talented.

Then in 2007, the Lakers started winning. Does that mean that Kobe became a better leader? No, the wins started coming because the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol, Trevor Ariza and Derek Fisher. Surely, it is impressive on Kobe's part that he won the last two titles and has made the finals the last three years, but the facts show that he can only win when surrounded by a huge amount of talent.

Kobe is an outstanding and clutch player; his ability to make seemingly any jump shot on the court astounds me. But he is not in the top tier of greatness. Those spots are reserved for the MJs, the Magics, the Birds, the Wilts, the Kareems, the Russells and the LeBrons of the world (in no particular order), guys that can win and make their teammates better no matter how bad those teammates are. Being a great player is not just about excelling on your own, it is about helping everyone around you excel and leading your entire team to victory.

The James-less Cavaliers who only lost 21 games all of last year with LeBron, have lost 25 straight without him; that is not opinion, those are the cold hard facts, do with them what you wish.

Back On Track?

The Georgetown Hoyas are seemingly back on track, currently sporting a five-game winning streak, with all of those wins having come against Big East teams. In the past 72 hours, the Hoyas, have defeated two Big East monsters in then 7th ranked Villanova and 13th ranked Louisville, on the road and at home respectively. Both wins were nail-biters that went down to the wire. It seems that this Hoya team has finally regained its footing after a dismal few weeks that began with a 69-55 rout suffered at the hands of Notre Dame on December 29 and thankfully for Georgetown faithful culminated with an embarrassing 72-57 loss to Pitt on January 12.

The Hoyas are far from being out of the thick of things yet; it is a widely-known fact that when you are a college basketball team in the Big East there are no lulls in the season and no gimme-wins, exemplified by the fact that there are currently eight Big East teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

The next two games for Georgetown will be against Providence and Syracuse, teams that have struggled as of late. Providence has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team all year long; after starting out 12-2, the Friars withered away when conference play began, losing its first six conference games. The Friars then went on to beat none other than Louisville and Villanova (both at home), but then lost to Seton Hall this past Sunday. A young team, the Friars have only three seniors on their entire squad - only one of which plays with any regularity - while the rest of the team is made up of freshmen and sophomores. This team has had its bright spots, but overall should not be much of a problem for the Hoyas since the team is 1-7 on the road this year.

As usual, the Syracuse Orange will most likely prove to be a worthy opponent, especially since the game will be played at the Carrier Dome. Of course, it is tough not to mention (especially being a Georgetown fan) that as of late, the Orange are sporting a four game losing streak, after starting off the year with an 18 game winning streak. Although the first two losses were to Pittsburgh and Villanova, the two more recent games have been dreadful, the third loss being a 90-68 shellacking at the hands of Seton Hall and the most recent being a six point loss to Marquette. With their next two games on the road at UConn and USF, the Orange could come out flat against the Hoyas next Wednesday, but with a coach like Jim Boeheim, it is very unlikely that this losing streak will last too long. Georgetown just has to hope that they don't catch Syracuse when they are regaining their confidence, and looking to beat their rival at home after a road trip.

After a disappointing couple of weeks, the Hoyas finally seem back to where many expected to be before the season. The St. John's game last Wednesday saw Jason Clark go back to normal as he dropped 16 points, and helped the entire team re-assert its power in a 77-52 beat-down. The Villanova game saw Austin Freeman's return to power, as he dropped 30 points en route to a much needed victory. Finally, the last game against Louisville was Chris Wright's re-emergence back onto the scene; Wright had 24 points after a scoreless game against Villanova.

The "Big Three" of Freeman, Wright and Clark appears to be back to where it needs to be for this team to be consistently good. But, in addition to the Big Three producing each game, role players have to be able find a niche on the team in order for Georgetown to have continued success. Hollis Thompson has found a role that suits him very well as the sixth man, coming off the bench the last few games to contribute key three pointers. After an uninspired few games, Julian Vaughn has finally gotten back to his game, pulling down rebounds, playing tough defense down low and contributing points off of the hook shot he has refined for the past two seasons.

Of course, the freshmen cannot be overlooked. Nate Lubick has been praised constantly for his toughness by play-by-play announcers this season and has emerged as the starting power forward over Hollis Thompson. Although his numbers have not been outstanding, Lubick is learning how to maneuver better down low both on offense and defense, and will soon be a force to be reckoned with. Another freshman, Markel Starks is thriving in his role as backup point guard and seems prepared to become Chris Wright's successor next year. Like Lubick, his stats are not great, but it is clear that he is learning the trade and quickly seizing the role of floor general whenever he gets the chance to hit the court.

Still, the Hoyas have some problems that need to be fixed. The team's wins this season have always come on the backs of individuals instead of the whole team. It either seems to be Austin Freeman or Chris Wright or Jason Clark making up for another teammate's dismal performance. If this team wants to be a serious contender, the big three especially need to bring their A-game every game instead of just a handful of them.

In each of the last two wins, the Hoyas have not been close to exemplary. In the game against Villanova the whole team had to constantly rely on Freeman, and at times Clark to bail them out, escaping with only a three point victory. The game against Louisville was even worse; in an extremely sloppy victory in which Georgetown turned the ball over 16 times (the same amount as Louisville), the Hoyas did not play their slow, patient style of basketball, playing right into the hands of Louisville by getting into a track meet. Many of their possessions ended with ill-advised passes and shots. Although they were able to get points off the fast break, especially when Chris Wright had the ball, many of those points came off of Louisville's own turnovers, which were caused only in part by Georgetown's defense and mostly by Louisville's poor play; many of those fast-break points also often led to Louisville responding with open three-point attempts. In another three-point victory, the Hoyas were far from being Top 10 material.

With no single dominant team in the Big East, Georgetown looks primed to work their way up the ranks if they can clean up their play and get everyone on the same page. The talent is there, the Hoyas just need to be able to put it together more consistently.

The Forgotten Falcons

Today, I'm all about loving the Falcons.

You know? The 2010 NFC South champions/NFC regular season champs/team with the second best record in the NFL. In an AFC-dominated league, the Falcons have not gotten much respect this year, staying in the shadows of teams like the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, and even the team that they beat out in their own division, the reigning Super Bowl champ Saints.

The Falcons certainly are not the most exciting team in the NFL. They don't have the loudmouth coach like Rex Ryan, or the genius like Bill Belichick. They don't have the seemingly divine quarterback like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Their defense was only ranked 16th in the league this year. So how the heck was this team the best in the NFC? I mean no one goes 13-3 just because they have an easy schedule, you gotta be good to have that record. So what are these guys doing right?

Look at ESPN.com or SI.com and you probably won't see anything about the Falcons. That is because they do not have guys that attract attention to themselves. Still, they still have some phenomenal players. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are both towards the top of the rankings at their respective positions, Roddy White was arguably the best wide receiver this year, and Tony Gonzalez may just be the best tight end of all time. These guys don't talk much trash and don't get into trouble and so they are therefore rarely in the news. But that does not necessarily mean that they can't compete.

The Falcons will be playing at home against the Packers this weekend and for the AFC Championship Game - should they continue on past this weekend - which spells trouble for opponents. The Falcons' Week 16 loss to the Saints was only Matt Ryan's second loss at home in his entire three-year career at Atlanta, and first home loss in what had been a 15-game winning streak at the Georgia Dome. But that loss could have been good for the Falcons, who probably needed a reality check heading into the playoffs.

The Falcons won't outrun you, but they'll out-muscle you. With a bruising back in Turner, a physical receiver in White, an experienced tight end in Gonzalez and a quarterback with ice in his veins in Ryan (who already has 12 game-winning drives in a three-year career) the Falcons do not have a flashy offense, but they have a strong offense. Guess who led the league in third down conversions this year? The Falcons.

The weakness of this team is the defense. Yet, the D also finds a way to grind its way through games. Despite being ranked 16th in total yards allowed, the defense is ranked fifth best in points allowed. The reason: turnovers. The Falcons D had the fourth most interceptions in the league this season and going up against pass-first teams like Green Bay this round and either Chicago or Seahawks next round, they will surely be ready to force a few turnovers. Rodgers has had rough games this year (including a 20-17 loss to Atlanta earlier this year in which he only had one TD), Cutler can be an interception machine at times, and Hasselbeck had more picks than touchdowns this year, and is, well, old. Plus, you can't forget about good ol' John Abraham, the 32 year old pass rush specialist who recorded 13 sacks this year.

So here's the formula. The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the league this year which includes a clutch quarterback and a great rushing attack, are great on third downs, have a defense that is perfectly suited for its pass-happy opponents, and constantly win at home, where they will be playing throughout the playoffs up until the Super Bowl. Currently they are only three point favorites over the Packers and understandably so, considering the Packers' running game coming alive last week in the win over the Eagles, and because of the Falcons' inexperience, the one knock against this team. Surely, there is no argument that can be made against inexperience; they are a young team, which collectively has spent little time in the playoffs, but they are gritty and strong enough to keep pulling out wins.

The Falcons are my favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Whether they would be able to defeat what would probably be the favored team from the AFC is still yet to be seen, but do not count the Falcons out; they may not be the best, but they certainly have all of the right tools to take down the best.

NCAA: King of the Hypocrites

This week, I'm all about hating the NCAA.

The NCAA is constantly promoting itself as the protector of true sports, emphasizing that unlike professional athletes, their athletes play to win and nothing else. Sadly however, instead of guarding against greed, the NCAA has promoted it, being rightfully criticized for hypocrisy and the inflexibility of its rules over the past decade.

One great example of the NCAA's idiocy took place in Utah. When Utah basketball coach Rick Majerus supposedly took his players out for meals on up to 20 occasions to discuss personal matters in their lives, such as the death of one of his player's fathers and the upcoming mission trip of of another player, the NCAA was there to put the Utes on probation for three years, a period in which they lost three scholarships. Even though each meal only cost about $10 and was a great way for Majerus to get to know his players and promote team unity, the NCAA decided to play the role of the Grinch and punish Utah.

The NCAA has even made its rounds in Georgetown recently; freshman Moses Ayegba was suspended for nine games when the NCAA found that someone who was not a part of his immediate family paid for his plane ticket from Nigeria to the United States. The man who paid for the ticket however, Joseph Boncore, had been one of Ayegba's coaches, was essentially Ayegba's caretaker and had been given authorization by Ayegba's mother to help make decisions for him. The NCAA said it was a no-no though, because God forbid that people try to help one another in times of need.

Of course, had punishing the people involved in the aforementioned situations lost the NCAA money, you could be sure that guys like Majerus and Ayegba would not have been bothered. Just take Ohio State's recent scandal for instance. In late December 2010, five Ohio State Buckeyes including star QB Terrelle Pryor were punished by the NCAA for selling memorabilia including championship rings, jerseys and awards for both money and tattoos. The players were suspended for five games ... next season.

Wait a minute. Something is not right here. Didn't the Buckeyes have a BCS bowl game (the Sugar Bowl) after the evidence was found and after the suspensions were made. That seems like that would have been a pretty opportune time to install discipline, especially being that the Sugar Bowl would be the first game following the findings. But of course, that type of suspension would have probably lost the NCAA money, as a Pryor-less Sugar Bowl would not attract many viewers. So what did the NCAA decide to do? It suspended the guilty Buckeyes for games against Akron, Toledo, Miami, Colorado and Michigan State (teams that had a combined record of 31-31 last year), four of which are at home and only one of which is against a conference opponent, so that they won't be missing out on any important Big Ten games - the games where there is moola to be made. Does not sound like justice is being served here.

In addition to serving as the crooked policeman who comes down hard on minor offenses, but turns the other way if you give it a couple of bucks, the NCAA is also inconsistent. If those same meals that Majerus had bought for some of his athletes were made at his home, delivered to his home or even brought back from the restaurant and served at his home, the NCAA would have been fine with it. The NCAA needs to either ease up on some of their ridiculous, arbitrary rules or tighten up and actually become consistent with their rulings.

Recently, the NCAA has made it quite clear that it comes money first and discipline second. If the NCAA wants to be the protector of amateurism then so be it, but that means that it to has to follow the rules. Instead of penalizing the people that are merely lending a bit of a hand to these amateur athletes, the NCAA should be after the guys that are doing the wrong things, like boosters giving thousands under the table, or student-athletes that knowingly and egregiously violate the rules. Maybe with the constant hypocrisy and greed surrounding the NCAA constantly, the NCAA should think about suspending itself before it suspends anyone else.

Luck May Not Be So Lucky

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Today, I'm going to be introducing a new column idea called Hate It Or Love It. It's similar to What's For Dinner? except with this column, I'll be covering things in sports that I like or agree with in addition in addition to things I have a beef with. But if you were looking for some beef then today's your lucky day, because today, I am all about hating Andrew Luck's decision to stay at Stanford for his senior year in order to graduate.

There is something noble about an athlete getting their degree. Nowadays, it is extremely rare that a player, especially one of Luck's caliber, finishes up college. As the amount of money that pros are paid has risen dramatically, more players have decided that staying all four years is not necessary. A lot of the time players that leave early are wrong in doing so; many are not skilled or talented enough to play in the pros. With Luck that is not at all the case.

After a phenomenal junior season, in which he threw for 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and 3,338 yards under the guidance of coach Jim Harbaugh (a former quarterback) and finished second in the Heisman voting, Luck looked like he was ready to take the next step into the pros. He wasn't just projected as a second or third rounder either. With the first pick in this year's NFL Draft being owned by the Carolina Panthers, and the team's quarterback situation looking rocky with Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore, Mr. Luck looked like the probable first pick in this year's draft.

Do you know how much the first pick of the NFL Draft gets paid? When QB Sam Bradford got drafted by the Rams last year, he signed a six-year, $78 million deal, $50 million of which was guaranteed. The year before, another quarterback Matthew Stafford was taken in the top spot by the Lions; he signed a deal for the same length and amount as Bradford would a year later, but only got $41.7 million guaranteed. You can bet Luck would not be taking any less money than those guys if he was drafted first overall.

Now, after deciding to stay in school, there is no way for Luck's draft stock to go up; it can only either stay the same or go down, and we know how that usually ends up. The first quarterback of recent memory that passed up on being drafted in the top spot in order to enjoy his senior season was USC's Matt Leinart; what would have been his six-year, $49.5 million, with $24 million guaranteed deal went to Alex Smith. Even though Leinart's stats did not necessarily go down his senior year, his draft stock did, and he was taken with the 10th pick. Leinart was the last draftee to sign a deal that year, one worth $51 million over six years; although the deal was worth more than Smith's, only $14 million was guaranteed, and Leinart could have probably gotten a better deal than the much less popular Smith did had he left after his senior year and been picked first. Since then, Leinart has had a rocky career, mostly serving as a back-up quarterback.

In case the Leinart scenario was too long ago for Luck to remember, he had the evidence that he should declare for the draft right in front of him this year. Fellow Pac-10 quarterback Jake Locker out of Washington, was supposed to be the No. 1 pick in last year's draft. Instead of possibly getting Bradford's deal or a deal similar to Bradford's, Locker decided to stay for his senior year at Washington. After going down in almost every category this year and missing one game, Locker is now projected as a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Instead of $78 million, Locker will probably sign for around $7 million, and all because he wanted to stay his senior year and graduate.

Now it's Luck's turn to make the mistake. Who knows? Maybe he will have an outstanding senior season and once again be likely to be taken with the top pick. But there are just too many risks involved for that to be likely. No player has recently been able to do it, coach Jim Harbaugh is leaving to coach the 49ers next season, and now following a great season, Luck will have to perform under much more scrutiny than last year. Even for the Cardinal team, whose only loss came at the hands of Oregon this season, it will be tough to have another great year next year, no matter who their coach is.

There is no guarantee that the top pick and multi-million dollar deal will be there next year for Luck, even if he does have another outstanding season. There was a guarantee however, that had he left, there would have always been another opportunity to finish his college career and get a degree. Maybe staying in college is the noble thing to do, but had he left for the draft, Luck would be essentially guaranteed enough money to become actual nobility.