The day that we never thought would come may be finally here. It's a serious possibility that Roger Federer is over the hill. OK, maybe not over the hill entirely, but he's certainly on a serious decline, and his four set quarterfinal loss at Wimbledon to 12th seeded Tomas Berdych certainly was un-Federer-like. But does that mean that he'll never win another Grand Slam singles title?
Federer is 28 years old, and will be 29 in just over a month from now. He won the Australian Open this year, but there's been a lot of firsts for Roger this year, and not the good kind either. At the French Open he failed to reach the semifinal, the first time he failed to reach a Grand Slam semi since the 2004 French Open. Federer's rival Rafael Nadal took the No. 1 ranking from him following the tournament, with Roger just one week away from tying Pete Sampras' record of 286 total weeks as the top player in the world. This year, for the first time ever, he went into Wimbledon with only one championship under his belt, and as a result of this lackluster season and his early Wimbledon exit, he will fall to No. 3 in the world, for the first time in almost seven years. It's certainly clear that the years of Federer domination and the years of Federer constantly coming in first are coming to a close.
This doesn't mean that he's still not one of the best players in the world. As long as Federer is still running around on a tennis court, he'll be one of the top guys in the world, but the dominance he saw from 2004 to 2007, a period during which he won 11 of his 16 Grand Slam titles, including every single Wimbledon and US Open title, is long gone.
The timing for Federer's career could not have been better for him. He came onto the scene right when Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras were leaving the game, and men's tennis needed a new head honcho, whom many assumed would be Andy Roddick. Instead, Federer made Roddick his personal punching bag for the next several years, taking the game by storm, en route to becoming arguably the greatest tennis player of all time.
But now, it looks like his run is over. The aging Federer can't keep up with the young hard-hitting, aggressive players entering the game today, especially the man at the top of that list, 24 year old Rafael Nadal. Rafa who was previously only a clay court specialist is hitting his prime, and dominating on every surface, at the same time as Federer is hitting his decline. His 7 Grand Slam titles tie him with the likes of John McEnroe, and it seems like he's just getting started. If he can stay healthy - which many say will be tough because of how aggressively he plays - he will be the one that dominates Federer for the rest of Roger's career, the same way Federer dominated Roddick his whole career.
Another youngster that's rising through the ranks and just took the No. 2 spot in the world ATP Rankings from Federer is Novak Djokovic. Djokovic, who actually lost to Berdych today in straight sets, is only 23 years old, and although he has only won one Grand Slam title, he'll be a tough out for Federer in the last years of Roger's career. The fourth best player in the world is Andy Murray, who like Djokovic is 23 years old. Murray however, is yet to win his first Grand Slam singles title, despite having reached two finals in his career.
It doesn't seem like Federer has handled this decline very well. After he lost to Berdych, Federer blamed the loss on injuries saying, "I am struggling with a little bit of a back and a leg issue. It's frustrating to say the least. When you're hurting … you don't feel as comfortable. You can't concentrate on each and every point because you do feel the pain sometimes. Under the circumstances, I think I played a decent match. It's just not good and healthy to play under these kind of conditions."
Sounds like another star who can't seem to accept the fact that he's staring every athlete's biggest enemy right in the face: the strange phenomena called aging. Instead of being the usually gracious person we're used to Federer being, he seemed a little on edge, somewhat worried about his pending future. It's tough to think that he wouldn't be able to realize his decline, but when you play at the level he has throughout his career, sometimes it's tough to believe that your skills are actually deteriorating, and that you're no longer the best in the world. So he comes up with excuses, trying to find reasons why all of a sudden he can't play up to the standard he's always been used to playing to.
No one likes to be taken over as the best; no one likes to admit their time is up. That's why so many stars like Michael Jordan, Willie Mays, Jerry Rice, even Pete Sampras, just couldn't hang it up. They've been the best their entire lives; they've never felt what it's like not to be at the top of their sport, and so they keep trying to convince themselves that they still have it, and they try to do the impossible: beat old age.
The next year will be pivotal in Federer's career. Roger still has the talent, and he's still easily one of the top players in the world, but the clock is ticking on his career, and if he can't win at least one Grand Slam title and possibly another semifinals appearance on top of that, in his next four chances, then it's tough to tell whether he'll keep playing. It's asking a lot; 99.9% of tennis players would be fine with that type of year, but Roger Federer isn't most tennis players, and it'd be tough to see him struggle towards the end. In an individual sport especially, declines are apparent, because there's no help from teammates to make you look better; you're out there all by yourself, so everything falls on you. If you can't make the shots, if you can't run the court, then everyone knows it, everyone sees it based on your performance. Everyone will know when Federer's time is up, the important question is, will Federer be able to acknowledge it, and put down the racket when that time comes?
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