It was supposed to change everything. Chaos was supposed to ensue, and here we are, still waiting decisions from the stars even after the self-imposed deadline that many set for themselves.
My brother warned me that this would be the most over-hyped event in history, that everyone's just going to stay where they were and that nothing would happen. LeBron would stay in Cleveland, Wade would stay in Miami, Joe Johnson would stay in Atlanta, and the Knicks would continue to stink up New York. I laughed it off. We couldn't have waited three years for that. I mean every decision that the Knicks and so many other teams have made the past few years have been made with LeBron James and so many other free agents in mind, as if they would even have a good shot at him. And now with so many players deciding to stay put, so many teams might wind up with millions upon millions of dollars to burn on the John Salmons and Mike Millers of the world.
Let's run through what's happened so far. Paul Pierce stayed with the Celtics, signing for a reportedly much smaller sum than the $21,513,521 he was scheduled to make this year had he not opted out. Pierce made the decision in order to free up a bit more cap space for the Celtics, who are looking to bring back Ray Allen, as well as some of the other six other unrestricted free agents from last year's team and maybe add a few new players.
Then there's Joe Johnson. So many people assumed he would be Plan B for every team that wasn't able to add LeBron. Well, those teams may have to move onto Plan C if they don't get LeBron, because Joe Johnson just agreed to a 6 year, $119 million max contract to stay in Atlanta. The deal gives him about $30 million more than he could have gotten anywhere else, due to the NBA's contract rules. Joe Johnson's certainly no scrub, but at 29 years old, he's not a youngster and by the end of this deal he'll be 35 years old. Maybe, the fact that he's been a bit of a late bloomer will help him, but there was certainly no chance he'd pass up that kind of money to stay at home.
Next, we move to Dirk Nowitzki, the 32 year old former MVP, who has agreed to a four year deal reportedly worth around $80 million with the Mavericks, the team he's been with his whole NBA career. Many believed that he'd be staying, but there were still some rumblings throughout the start of the free agency period that he'd leave Dallas in order to try and win a championship. Well, those plans have been nixed and Dirk will most likely remain a Maverick for the rest of his playing days.
Even some of the smaller names are staying, making sure to sign their long term, big deals before what's now become a probable lockout and harder salary cap next summer. Rudy Gay, the 23 year old up-and-comer, will re-sign with the Grizzlies in a deal that will pay him $80 million over five years. Not too bad for a guy who many say is only good for his hops.
I think Rudy Gay is and will be a very good player in this league, but it seems like teams are spending money, just to spend money, and if the home teams are willing to provide more than any other team can, than why would any of these guys leave? You don't have to change scenery, you make more money than you could have anywhere else, and everyone knows, there's no place like home.
Even though there has been relatively little movement so far, doesn't mean that there won't be. Maryland alumnus and 30 year old NBA journeyman Steve Blake, is actually staying put, but moving at the same time, leaving the Clippers for a four year deal, reportedly worth around $16 million with the Lakers. Then there's Amar'e Stoudemire, who ended negotiations with the Suns, and agreed to a deal with the New York Knicks today, worth $100 million over five years. Finally, of course, there's Chris Bosh, who everyone believes is moving back to the States from the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have apparently tired of Bosh's antics during this free agency period which have included tweeting, and even making a documentary about the process, and are becoming less and less likely to sign Bosh to a deal or even help Bosh in a sign-and-trade. It has also always looked like he'd be going wherever either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade go, and that destination was never, ever Toronto.
Sure, Bosh and Stoudemire, are good, even great players, but we didn't wait years to see them change locale. We waited for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to find new homes, to change the future of basketball. But what happens if they decide just to stay where they are? It would make this free agency period one of the most over-hyped and disappointing events in sports history, that's for sure.
It's been a foregone conclusion for the past few years, that James and even Wade were going to leave once free agency hit, and now that it's finally here, it's crazy, yet totally conceivable for them to just stay put. I mean, there are so many incentives for them to stay. They'd be able to make millions more and have as much of a chance to win at home as anywhere else. They could bring the same players with them that they probably would be playing with if they decided to leave. Chris Bosh could go to the Cavaliers if the Raptors end up giving in and help him with a sign and trade and could also go to the Heat in a max deal. If that doesn't work, then solid backup guys are Carlos Boozer and David Lee. But could either a James-Bosh duo or a Wade- Bosh duo, really create a dynasty for the next few years? My feeling is, that either of those duos would even have trouble taking down the Lakers next year, let alone creating a dynasty with all of the young teams like the Bulls, Nets and Thunder also on the rise, and so many teams getting free agents and building powers both this year and next year.
But the chances of both staying are very, very small, and it's all because of the recent signing of Amar'e Stoudemire.
Teams have literally planned for this moment, for LeBron, for the past two years. They've slashed and burned through rosters, and said goodbyes to players, just to have a shot at The King. Now just like that, James can turn around and say, "sorry, I think I'm just gonna
stay in Cleveland.". Teams would be left with millions upon millions to sign middle of the road players, and probably the players they were planning on ditching for James. All of this attention, this media frenzy for nothing.
Do I think it will happen? No, not really, even though both have said they'd like to stay put, so the idea is not far-fetched. If LBJ were to stay in Ohio, he may not even be able to get Bosh and now, certainly wouldn't be able to get Stoudemire. I find it hard to believe that LeBron would stay in Cleveland, while other star free agents teams up to create a dynasty.
There's also been the apparent growth of the relationship between Bosh and Wade. They could be on their way to either Chicago or Miami together, instead of LeBron and Bosh sticking together. That's the best case scenario for the Knicks, as James will be left on the outside, and will have no choice but to go to either New York or New Jersey, or Chicago, if Wade and Bosh go to Miami. With the Knicks signing Stoudemire, and the possibility of a sign and trade with David Lee for someone like Tony Parker - who will be a free agent next year, when Eddy Curry's contract comes off the books next year - or Monta Ellis, things are certainly looking up in the LeBron Sweepstakes. If James goes somewhere with Bosh, then Wade is left out, and his next best option is the Knicks, if LeBron and Bosh are already with the Bulls.
It may even be better for James, who instead of teaming up with Wade, would team up with good players, but still get all of the credit for the titles he could and most certainly would win, instead of splitting the attention. I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic but all signs are pointing to either LeBron or Wade coming to New York if the Raptors refuse to help Bosh with a sign and trade or if the Miami trio doesn't happen, both of which are looking doubtful based on recent reports. This is why signing the first big name was a huge help for the Knicks in either getting D-Wade or LeBron. Neither, is going to want to continue all on their own while the other is thriving with Chris Bosh as their sidekick, and therefore the Knicks would be a great back-up.
When it comes down to it, both LeBron and Wade are going to go where they can win, something that has to trump staying in their hometown with a mediocre team. But it's a nice hypothetical to think about if both were to stay home, as has been the trend with many free agents so far. All of this craziness then would have really been for absolutely nothing in my opinion, even with the movement of Bosh. But with the Stoudemire deal in place, what was once a gloomy outlook from my point of view is getting better and better each minute, as the Knicks may have a chance at one of the best three players in basketball.
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