Let The Games Begin

Today is July 1, 2010, one the most talked about days in sports history. There has been no bigger opportunity for the balance of power in any sport to shift so dramatically than right now. Yet, we don't even know if anything big will actually happen. We act as if it's a foregone conclusion that everyone's going to leave where they are, but heck, James could stay in Cleveland, Wade could stay in Miami, Bosh could stay in Toronto, and Stoudemire could stay in Phoenix (most likely not the latter two, but you never know). The range of proportions and consequences of this day are so large it's impossible to tell whether nothing will happen or if the way we think about sports will change entirely.

And all of the power, the destiny and future of literally the entire NBA for the next decade, lie with LeBron James' decision. Think that's an overstatement? I say it's anything but. Think about it; if LeBron goes to a team with another superstar, whether it's Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade or both, or even someone else, then that team will be the favorite to win the title every year for the next decade. If James and Bosh go to the Bulls, they would be not only unstoppable, but unstoppable for the whole decade. If James goes to the Heat, it would give the Heat arguably two of the three best players in the game today and possibly an additional superstar i Bosh. If James goes to New York, Bosh may come with, and who's to say Carmelo Anthony doesn't decide to join them next year when he's a free agent. Even the Nets would be contenders if James and Bosh joined them. Or what about the option that everyone keeps forgetting about, the one that keeps him in Cleveland? If he goes back, will Bosh follow and if he does, can they win titles together? Who would beat any of those teams? They would dominate every single year.

But, LeBron's decision doesn't only impact which team will be made into an immediate title contender, it impacts where other guys go too, the Amar'e Stoudemires, the Joe Johnsons, the Carlos Boozers, all the way down to the David Lees, the Rudy Gays, the John Salmons and the Channing Fryes, who are all very good, even great players that could be pivotal pickups for a team moving on to Plan B after LeBron. There are so many players to go around that it's tough for a team not to have a good off-season.

But if everything goes according to plan, someone is going to get left out right? I mean, if there are going to be two or three stars on a team, making sure they stay in groups in order to win multiple titles, and six main teams are in contention to get those players, it's just probability, that at least one team will have created all their cap space for nothing. The two most likely teams to have this happen to them are the Nets and the Clippers, the Nets being the worst team in basketball last year, and the Clippers, well, they've never been good. Both of them are the back-up teams in their areas, the Clippers in the overwhelming shadow of the Lakers, and the Nets always struggling to steal fans from the Knicks. But don't leave the Knicks off that list either. They're a dismal team, with awful ownership, and unfortunately for them, the attractiveness of playing in New York isn't what it used to be as people can have big endorsement deals and fame wherever they go. It also doesn't help that the city has the most ferocious media in the sports world.

The implications of this free agency period don't just involve basketball though.

Today can change the way we view athletes. Most of the time we look at athletes and see greedy people who chase money above all else, because let's face it, money talks. But, players like James, Wade and Bosh may end up sacrificing money to have a better shot at winning multiple championships. With the exception of veteran players, that's never been done before. One of the main reasons, players like A-Rod, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees was to win, but above all else they signed for the money. If some other team had been able to offer a couple more million, or if there was a salary cap, forcing all of them to have to take pay cuts to be Yankees, none of those guys would be in pinstripes. This would truly be the first time, when a star athlete really proved to fans, that winning means everything, and that it's not about signing the biggest, most lucrative contract in history, but about the number of rings on the hand signing a contract.

Today can literally boost or destroy city's economies. Imagine what would happen to Cleveland without LeBron. The Cavaliers had the second highest home attendance in the NBA last year, second only to the Bulls. One things for sure: all of those people aren't going to see Anderson Varejao or Mo Williams play. This is a team that the year before LeBron was drafted, was dead last in attendance. Less tourists would come through town for games, less Cleveland residents would be going to the city's bars and restaurants before and after the games, less Cleveland suburbanites would bother making the drive into the city to see the Cavs play. Cleveland would lose millions upon millions of dollars annually with the departure of LeBron. The city getting him would be the one getting those millions. And just imagine if LeBron teams up with a fellow superstar, how long the waiting lists would be to get tickets. Stadiums would be sold out every night to see the Best Show on Hardwood, and bars and restaurants in the surrounding areas would be filled to the brim before and after games.

If a trio like James, Wade and Bosh team up, say, on the Heat, they'd have to take pay cuts, but they'd certainly be the favorite to win the title every year. It'd be like when Paul Pierce and the Celtics brought Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to Boston, but on steroids. It would almost be a disappointment if that team didn't win at least six championships. It's just all about whom these guys wants to provide their services to.

Everyone's been saying the Bulls and the Heat as of late will be the only contenders in the LeBron Sweepstakes. The Bulls with their smart decisions recently, have opened up even more cap space, and would be able to take on both James and Bosh, but where does that leave D-Wade? Would he stay all alone in Miami, would he try to bring a Carlos Boozer or Amar'e Stoudemire to South Beach, or would he wait around until other players signed with other teams and then join the one that he thinks is his best fit? Maybe a good fit would be in New York with Joe Johnson and Amar'e Stoudemire, contending with a Bulls team composed of James, Bosh, Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah.

What if LeBron just tells everyone "Psych!" and just decides to stays with the Cavs? Do Wade and Bosh team up in Miami, do Joe Johnson and Amar'e head to New York? Can the Nets or the Mavericks come from behind with their big-name owners, Mark Cuban and Mikhail Prokhorov and steal one of the big names away?

So, what about LeBron becoming a Knick? Just about a year ago it seemed like a foregone conclusion, that if the King didn't win a ring hat he'd be jetting over to the Big Apple. The signs were everywhere. There was LeBron wearing a Yankee hat at an Indians-Yankees playoff game ... in Cleveland. There were the t-shirts, the signs, the press conferences where he constantly left his future open; all roads led to New York for LeBron James. Then reality set in. Teams started saying, hmm, maybe we should open up some cap space to try and get LeBron too, as well as some of the other huge stars that will be free agents in 2010. Enter Bulls, Heat, Nets, Clippers, and I guess we'll throw the Mavericks into the mix as well. The Knicks no longer had their pick of the lot, and soon enough, before they knew it, they were the underdogs to land the big names. Now the reality of it is, the Knicks may not even get a big name. If that's what happens, the Knickerbockers will most likely be waiting for 2011 when players like Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Yao Ming, Caron Butler and Jason Richardson are on the market, and God forbid Zach Randolph and Jamal Crawford.

What if this, what if that, what if this and that, what if nothing at all? It's crazy to think that within just a few weeks and maybe even a few days, all of our questions will be answered, the questions that we have literally been asking for several years. It's the moment that every single sports fan has been waiting for, and ESPN has been hyping up for years. Chris Broussard, Marc Stein and Ric Bucher of ESPN, will probably have numerous sleepless nights, their BlackBerries ringing constantly. And the great thing about it all, as Chris Broussard said on SportsCenter earlier this week, is that LeBron will probably be one of the first few players to sign - the first day to do that being July 8 with a moratorium restricting any player to sign an actual contract for the upcoming week - as he is everyone's Plan A, and no team will offer deals to anyone else before they know that they can't get James.

My fearless, unbiased final guess as to what will happen? LeBron James and Chris Bosh go to the Bulls, Dwyane Wade and Amar'e Stoudemire go to the Heat, Paul Pierce goes back to the Celtics, Dirk Nowitzki goes back to the Mavericks and I'm sad to say it folks, only Joe Johnson and David Lee or Carlos Boozer go to the Knicks, with one of the latter two going to the Nets if they don't go to the Knicks. There's just too much talent in Chicago for him to turn down the Bulls even if it means the large possibility of having to live in Jordan's shadow, and it's been said wherever he goes Bosh will join. Plus, both can get max contracts in Chicago. Dwyane Wade will be left out of the picture, so he'll pick up Amar'e and head back to Miami. Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki have been with their respective teams too long to walk away now. And of course we get to the Knicks. I hate to have such a gloomy outlook, but there's no reason to come here; the team stinks, there's very little young talent, and the fans and media will get on your back if you don't win. That being said, I still think there's hope; if LeBron doesn't want to live in Jordan's shadow, if he doesn't want to take a pay cut in Miami, if he doesn't want to go back to Cleveland and if he really wants to play in the biggest city in the world, he could come to New York. Also, if James goes back to Cleveland and Bosh doesn't want to play in a small market, Bosh could come to the Knicks. If Bosh joins Wade in Miami, that means Amar'e could play in New York, which would certainly entice Joe Johnson to join. The possibilities are endless, and hopefully it plays out well for the Knicks, but I have a bad feeling it won't.

The cap spaces have been cleared, the convincing arguments have been prepared, and the table is set. It's time for the top players in the league to decide their destiny, and stealing the slogan from the Nike World Cup commercial, to "write the future." The scary part is, the potential to create the greatest sports dynasty ever is in this free agency market. The parts are all in place for a team to come away from this period, as the luckiest team in all of sports. It's also possible for this to become the most over-hyped and overrated event ever, if no one goes anywhere. When the clock struck 12:01 am today, the NBA's top free agents had to take a step back from this hype and this world that has been ready for them to step into for years now, and probably ask themselves, "is this really happening?" Well, it's happening alright, even though the magnitude and importance of the decisions that these players will make seem beyond our wildest dreams.